UNI technical outlook bearish — key supports $4.50, break targets $3.07; wait for $5.17 breakout
UNI (Uniswap) trades around $4.82 on Jan 22, 2026, inside a dominant downtrend with price below EMA20 ($5.34) and Supertrend resistance at $5.91. Momentum indicators are bearish: RSI ~35, MACD negative, Stochastic in the 20s. Key support levels: $4.5080 (high-volume base) and $4.7610 (near EMA20); critical bearish target at $3.0750. Resistance clusters at $4.8630, $5.1710 and a longer-term target at $6.7898. 24h volume is moderate (~$84M) and falling, OBV shows negative divergence, and UNI remains correlated to Bitcoin (correlation ~0.85). Trading guidance: sell on rallies between $4.86–$5.17, initiate shorts below $4.50 with a bearish target of $3.07; only consider longs after confirmed breakout above $5.17 or hold confirmation at $4.50. Risk/reward favors shorts (example R:R ~1:5 for short), while longs show weak R:R (~1.1:1). Monitor BTC levels ($88k–$91k) and reaction volume at $4.50 for direction. This is a technical analysis summary and not investment advice.
Bearish
The analysis shows a clear bearish technical structure: price trading below key EMAs and Supertrend, negative MACD, low RSI, and falling volume with OBV divergence. High UNI–BTC correlation (~0.85) means BTC weakness amplifies UNI downside. Immediate supports at $4.5080 and $4.7610 are key — a confirmed break below $4.50 would likely accelerate selling toward the $3.07 target, while only a sustained breakout above $5.17/$5.91 would negate the bearish bias. Historically, altcoins have suffered 10–20% extra downside when Bitcoin loses major supports; similar correlation-driven drops occurred in previous BTC corrections (e.g., mid‑2022 and late‑2023 drawdowns). Short-term, traders should favor short positions or wait for confirmation before longing; long-term recovery remains possible if weekly supports hold and BTC reverses, but current indicators favor further downside risk.