Study of 82M Upbit XRP Trades Finds 10 Months of Algorithmic Net Selling
A trade-level study of roughly 82 million XRP/KRW trades on South Korea’s Upbit found persistent, one-directional net selling over a 311-day (10-month) period. Researcher Dom — cited by analyst STEPH IS CRYPTO — compared Upbit flows with about 444 million Binance trades and measured a negative monthly cumulative volume delta for ten consecutive months. Net selling on Upbit totaled ~3.3 billion XRP (≈$5 billion), about 5.4% of XRP’s circulating supply. Key evidence points to algorithmic execution: 57–61% of trades executed within 10 milliseconds; frequent round-number sell sizes (10, 50, 100, 1,000 XRP); small fractional KRW buy orders consistent with retail demand; and long near-continuous execution windows (including a 17-hour stretch). The report clarifies Upbit was the venue where the flow hit the book, not necessarily the originating seller. Possible explanations include a large holder unwinding, institutional hedging, or automated inventory management. Upbit accounts for 60–70% of KRW liquidity and XRP represents 30–35% of its turnover, making the XRP/KRW pair a convenient exit route. From April to September the pair traded 3–6% cheaper on Upbit than Binance, indicating sellers prioritised converting to KRW over cross-exchange optimization. For traders: expect persistent mechanical sell pressure on XRP/KRW that can amplify local price swings and depress on-exchange liquidity; do not equate KRW-pair action with global XRP sentiment; monitor Upbit-specific premium/discount and liquidity when sizing positions or planning exits. This is informational only and not financial advice.
Bearish
The report documents sustained, large-scale net selling on the XRP/KRW pair concentrated on Upbit. Net outflows (~3.3B XRP) and evidence of mechanical execution imply persistent sell pressure that can lower on-exchange liquidity and maintain downward bias on local prices. The observed 3–6% KRW discount to Binance suggests sellers prioritized KRW conversion rather than price optimisation, reinforcing local selling pressure. In the short term, expect amplified price swings and reduced depth on Upbit during sell waves; freezes or stop-outs in thin KRW liquidity could cause sharper local declines. In the medium term, if the selling represents a long unwind by a large holder or systematic institutional hedging, the persistent supply could keep downward pressure on XRP until flows subside or are absorbed. However, because the selling appears venue-specific, global XRP prices (stablecoin and USD pairs) may be less affected if other venues provide offsetting demand. Traders should therefore treat XRP/KRW moves as potentially exchange-specific and size positions with attention to Upbit liquidity, local premium/discounts, and the risk of continued algorithmic selling.