Study of 82M Upbit XRP trades find 10 months of algorithmic net selling
One trade-level study wey check about 82 million XRP/KRW trades for South Korea Upbit find say persistent one-direction net selling dey for 311 days (10 months). Researcher Dom — wey analyst STEPH IS CRYPTO cite — compare Upbit flows with about 444 million Binance trades and see negative monthly cumulative volume delta for ten months straight. Net selling for Upbit reach around 3.3 billion XRP (≈$5 billion), about 5.4% of XRP circulating supply. Key evidence show say na algorithmic execution: 57–61% of trades happen within 10 milliseconds; plenty round-number sell sizes (10, 50, 100, 1,000 XRP); small fractional KRW buy orders wey match retail demand; and long near-continuous execution windows (including one 17-hour stretch). The report clear say Upbit na the venue wey the flow hit the book, no mean say na there the seller start. Possible explanations include big holder wey dey unwind, institutional hedging, or automated inventory management. Upbit dey provide 60–70% of KRW liquidity and XRP make 30–35% of im turnover, make XRP/KRW pair become easy exit route. From April to September the pair trade 3–6% cheaper on Upbit than Binance, show say sellers prefer convert to KRW pass cross-exchange optimisation. For traders: expect persistent mechanical sell pressure on XRP/KRW wey fit amplify local price swings and reduce on-exchange liquidity; no equal KRW-pair action with global XRP sentiment; watch Upbit-specific premium/discount and liquidity when you size positions or plan exits. This na informational only and no be financial advice.
Bearish
Di report tok show say heavy, steady net selling dey happen for XRP/KRW pair mainly for Upbit. Net outflow (~3.3B XRP) plus signs wey trade dem dey run mechanically mean sey sellers dey put steady pressure wey fit reduce on-exchange liquidity and keep price trend for local market downward. The 3–6% KRW discount wey dem see against Binance show say sellers prefer turn to KRW quick instead of try get better price, so e make local selling pressure stronger. Short-term, expect bigger price swings and shallower depth on Upbit during sell waves; freezes or stop-outs inside thin KRW liquidity fit make local crashes sharper. Medium-term, if na big holder dey unwind long or na systematic institutional hedging, the steady supply fit keep pressure down on XRP until flows calm down or dem absorb am. But because the selling look venue-specific, global XRP prices (stablecoin and USD pairs) fit no too dey affected if other venues bring offsetting demand. Traders suppose treat XRP/KRW moves as possibly exchange-specific and size positions careful, mind Upbit liquidity, local premium/discounts, and the risk of continued algorithmic selling.