10-Year Treasury Yield Near 4.8% Pressures Bitcoin

Published: 2026-09-01 12:59:13 |

The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.75% and later reached about 4.79%, its highest level since January 2025. Rising Brent crude, which settled near $90.69 a barrel, renewed US-Iran tensions and persistent inflation have led markets to reduce expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. At Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation remains the central bank’s main concern and could require further tightening if it does not move towards the 2% target. CME FedWatch raised the probability of a September rate hike to 65.4%, while Barclays and Société Générale forecast two more hikes this year. Goldman Sachs and UBS still expect no further increases, citing weaker retail sales and a cooling labour market. Jim Cramer also said rate cuts appear unlikely under current monetary, geopolitical and energy-market conditions. Higher Treasury yields increase the appeal of cash and government bonds while raising discount rates for risk assets. Technology stocks and other long-duration assets may face pressure, and Bitcoin could also weaken because it offers no yield. The end of a nine-day run of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs adds to the near-term risk-off signal. Crypto traders should monitor the 10-year Treasury yield, oil prices, Federal Reserve guidance, ETF flows and data ahead of the 16 September FOMC meeting. A sustained yield near 4.8% and oil above $90 could weigh on Bitcoin, although softer inflation or economic data could revive rate-cut expectations and increase volatility.

Bearish

The immediate effect is bearish for Bitcoin. A 10-year Treasury yield near 4.8% raises the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset and makes government debt more attractive to investors. Higher yields also tighten financial conditions and can reduce liquidity available for speculative assets. Rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns strengthen the case for a Federal Reserve rate hike, while the break in the nine-day streak of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs removes an important source of demand. Bitcoin may therefore face selling pressure and higher volatility in the short term, particularly if the yield moves above 4.8%, oil remains above $90, or Fed officials signal further tightening. The medium- and long-term outlook is less certain. Goldman Sachs and UBS still expect no additional hikes, and weaker employment or inflation data could restore expectations for rate cuts. Such a shift could support Bitcoin, but until monetary policy expectations ease and ETF inflows recover, the balance of risks remains negative.