Banks warn GENIUS Act stablecoin yield loophole could drain $6.6T from U.S. deposits
Banking groups led by the Bank Policy Institute (BPI) told Congress the GENIUS Act of 2025 contains a loophole that lets crypto platforms and affiliates offer yield on stablecoins despite the law barring issuers from paying interest. In a January 6 letter the coalition said exchanges can route rewards and yield through affiliated firms or programs, creating ‘shadow-bank’ competition that could prompt a mass migration of deposits from U.S. banks — industry estimates put potential outflows as high as $6.6 trillion. Regulators and commentators argue the law targets stablecoin issuers narrowly and does not level the playing field across payment systems; some propose broader reforms similar to a "Clarity Act" to cover both traditional and digital payments. Market context: total stablecoin market cap cited near $318 billion (USDT ~ $187B, USDC ~ $75B with ~73% annual growth). The groups warn that closing the yield loophole would likely restore stablecoins to payment-only roles and could send existing stablecoin balances back to banks, with uncertain effects on credit availability. The dispute frames a policy choice between maintaining banking stability and allowing crypto platforms to compete as high-yield alternatives — an outcome that could influence liquidity flows, funding costs and lending capacity in both the banking and crypto sectors.
Bearish
This news is bearish for the stablecoin tokens mentioned (notably USDC/USDT context) because it signals potential regulatory tightening and political pressure to close yield-bearing loopholes. If Congress acts to restrict affiliate-driven stablecoin yields, platforms may remove yield products or users may migrate funds back to banks, reducing demand and on-chain balances for yield-linked stablecoins. In the short term, market volatility could rise as traders reprice regulatory risk and liquidity shifts; trading desks might see increased withdrawals from stablecoin pools and greater funding volatility. In the medium-to-long term, clarity could reduce speculative demand for yield-bearing stablecoin products and compress spreads between deposited funds and bank products, lowering stablecoin-driven capital flows into crypto lending markets. Conversely, if lawmakers fail to act, continuing high-yield stablecoin products could sustain token demand — but the current framing increases policy risk, which typically depresses price and liquidity for affected tokens.