Banks dey warn say GENIUS Act stablecoin yield gap fit drain $6.6T from U.S. deposits

Bank grup dem wey Bank Policy Institute (BPI) dey lead tell Congress say GENIUS Act 2025 get loophole wey fit make crypto platforms and their affiliated companies dey offer yield for stablecoins even though law talk say issuers no suppose pay interest. For one letter wey dem send on January 6, di coalition talk say exchanges fit channel rewards and yield through affiliated firms or programs, comot like 'shadow‑bank' competition wey fit make plenti deposits comot from US banks — industry estimate talk say possible outflows fit reach $6.6 trillion. Regulators and commentators dey argue say di law narrow — e dey target stablecoin issuers only and e no level playing field across payment systems; some people dey propose wider reforms like 'Clarity Act' to cover both traditional and digital payments. Market context: total stablecoin market cap near $318 billion (USDT ~ $187B, USDC ~ $75B with ~73% annual growth). Di groups warn say if dem close di yield loophole, e likely go make stablecoins return to payment‑only role and fit push existing stablecoin balances back to banks, wey fit get uncertain effect on credit availability. Di dispute na policy choice between keeping banking system stable and allowing crypto platforms compete as high‑yield options — outcome fit affect liquidity flows, funding costs and lending capacity for both banking and crypto sectors.
Bearish
Dis news bad for di stablecoin tokens wey dem mention (specially for USDC/USDT mata) because e show say regulators fit tighten and politicians fit pressure make dem close di loopholes wey dey give yield. If Congress make law to limit affiliate-driven stablecoin yields, platforms fit remove yield products or people fit move dia money back go bank, wey go reduce demand and on-chain balances for yield-linked stablecoins. For short term, market fit get more volatility as traders dey reprice regulatory risk and liquidity dey shift; trading desks fit see more withdrawals from stablecoin pools and funding volatility go increase. For medium to long term, clarity fit reduce speculative demand for yield-bearing stablecoin products and compress spread between deposited funds and bank products, dey lower stablecoin-driven capital flows into crypto lending markets. But if lawmakers no act, high-yield stablecoin products fit continue to support token demand — still, di current framing dey increase policy risk, and normally dat dey push down price and liquidity for affected tokens.