JPMorgan: U.S. Bitcoin Miners’ Market Cap Jumps $11B in January as Valuations Decouple from BTC

JPMorgan reports that in January 2026 the combined market capitalization of 14 U.S.-listed Bitcoin mining companies rose by about $11 billion (≈23% month-on-month) to roughly $60 billion, notably outperforming the S&P 500 despite an approximate 4% monthly drop in Bitcoin (BTC) price. The bank attributes the rally to a temporary decline in Bitcoin network hashrate and a fall in mining difficulty—partly caused by winter storms— which eased mining competition and boosted miner revenue and gross profit per EH/s. Analysts estimated miners earned roughly $42,350 per EH/s in daily block reward revenue in January, with gross profit per EH/s up about 24% to ~$21,200. Sentiment was further supported by corporate developments and strategic shifts: miners like Riot Platforms signed HPC deals with AMD and are repurposing sites toward AI-ready/high-performance computing (HPC) data centers, a structural move that could diversify revenue beyond BTC mining. JPMorgan warns valuations are stretched — the sector trades at roughly three times the post-2022 average on a block-reward multiple — implying a disconnect between equity prices and bitcoin fundamentals. Most tracked miners outperformed BTC in January, though the group’s valuation remains about 15% below October 2025 highs. Key takeaways for traders: short-term miner profitability can spike from hashrate and difficulty shifts, corporate pivots to AI/HPC are re-rating mining equities, but equity multiples appear elevated relative to on-chain fundamentals, increasing downside risk if BTC or miner fundamentals reverse.
Neutral
The news has a mixed but overall neutral price implication for Bitcoin (BTC). Positive short-term drivers—temporary declines in network hashrate and mining difficulty—improved miner revenue and supported miner equities, which can lift market sentiment and risk appetite for crypto-linked stocks. Structural developments (miners pivoting to AI/HPC data centers) strengthen longer-term business prospects for mining companies and may reduce sector-specific risk, supporting equity valuations independently of BTC price. However, JPMorgan notes valuations are materially stretched (roughly three times the post-2022 average on block-reward multiples), indicating a decoupling from on-chain fundamentals. That raises downside risk: if BTC price falls further or hashrate/difficulty normalizes, miner equities and associated sentiment could reverse, pressuring BTC indirectly. Historically, miner profitability spikes from transient hashrate drops have produced short-lived sentiment boosts rather than sustained BTC rallies. Therefore, while miner equity strength and infrastructure diversification are constructive, they do not constitute a clear bullish catalyst for BTC price itself — net effect is neutral. Traders should watch on-chain metrics (hashrate, difficulty), miner revenue per EH/s, and BTC price correlations; consider tightening risk management given elevated equity multiples.