US government Bitcoin transfer raises fears of Bhutan’s selling spree

On-chain data tracked by Arkham shows the US government moved 8.196 BTC (about $606,470) to Coinbase Prime, tied to the 2016 Bitfinex hack case involving Ilya Lichtenstein. Traders are watching this as a potential signal in the ongoing “Bhutan’s Bitcoin selling spree” narrative, because exchange-linked transfers often precede selling. The move also comes amid growing sovereign-collector activity. Bhutan has reportedly transferred about 3,247 BTC this year (roughly $240.4m). In the last 24 hours alone, it reportedly moved around 250 BTC (about $18.47m) in multiple batches to new wallet addresses, keeping attention on whether sovereign holders are becoming more active sellers in 2026. This “Bhutan’s Bitcoin selling spree” comparison is largely timing-driven. Crucially, the article notes the US transfer is not necessarily an open-market sale. US federal proceedings completed in early 2025 required Bitfinex-related BTC to be returned in kind to Bitfinex rather than sold and sent to the Treasury. Bitfinex said it plans to use returned BTC to redeem Recovery Right Tokens and to allocate at least 80% of remaining net proceeds to repurchase and burn UNUS SED LEO (LEO). Meanwhile, other supply-side signals remain under watch: large wallets (>100 BTC) reportedly increased exchange transfers, and miner reserves (CryptoQuant) fell by about 61,000 BTC to around 1.801m BTC. Verified miner sales cited include 4,026 BTC from Riot, 13,210 BTC from Marathon, and 1,992 BTC from Core Scientific. Despite this, BTC price was reported around $75,611, up ~1.09% intraday, supported by a 10-day ceasefire headline.
Neutral
该消息对短线更偏“情绪中性偏谨慎”:US政府把BTC转到Coinbase Prime的确会触发“可能在卖”的联想,尤其在布坦主权钱包同周期频繁转账的背景下,容易放大市场对供给增加的担忧。但文章同时给出了关键反证:这笔BTC与Bitfinex 2016黑客案的法律清偿安排相关,法院要求“以实物归还”,因此不必然意味着US政府要立刻在公开市场抛售。类似事件中,执法/清偿类资金从冷钱包流向交易所平台时,初期常引发波动与对冲需求,但若后续确认为“归还用途”而非抛售,波动往往会回落。 长期来看,市场真正需要跟踪的是:主权持币方是否从“法律归还/代币赎回”转向持续的市场化出售,以及大额钱包与矿工储备是否继续下降并演变为更稳定的卖压。就当前信息,价格仍受外部风险偏好(文中提到的宏观/地缘因素)托底,因此整体更符合“中性”评级,而不是直接看空。