U.S. market-structure crypto bill fit delay go reach 2027; rules fit no start work until 2029
TD Cowen analysts dey talk say one comprehensive US crypto market-structure bill wey lawmakers bin dey try finish by 2026 don jam delay wey go last for plenti years. Na political reasons — no be say draft no ready — dey block am: Democrats fit prefer make dem delay so dem go get back leverage if 2026 midterms change who dey control House, and the conflict-of-interest rules (wey go limit senior officials from holding crypto or get business ties) dey cause wahala. Dem ethics rules fit explicitly cover big-name people and their family ties, wey go make negotiations hard. One compromise wey dem dey talk about na to phase in the conflict rules small-small up to three years after law start, but Democrats fit push for wider or longer delay. House don pass one version (FIT21 don clear agency roles earlier), but Senate still need 60 votes to beat filibuster and bipartisan support no sure. TD Cowen warn say carrying out the final regulatory rules fit extend till 2029, wey go keep regulatory uncertainty for US digital-asset firms and make dem operate under patchwork of SEC and CFTC guidance. For traders: the long uncertainty fit affect business decisions, liquidity, capital allocation and US competitiveness versus places wey dey move faster with clearer frameworks.
Neutral
Di tori tok news dey extend regulatory uncertainty pass we e resolve am, and normally dat kain tin dey give market neutral-to-mixed effect. Short term: markets fit see more wahala for movement and small small downside pressure for crypto projects wey dey listed for US or dey focus on US as companies go dey delay expansion, fundraising or listings while policy risk still high. Liquidity for US-linked tokens fit thin if institutional players dey delay their commitments. Long term: if dem finally bring one delayed but comprehensive framework e fit help as e go reduce fragmentation and make agency jurisdiction (SEC vs CFTC) clear, fit bring more capital inflows and institutional participation once rules set. But, the chance say ethics provisions and phased enforcement fit change market access or how executives behave add structural uncertainty. Overall, the announcement no clearly bullish nor bearish for major tokens (e mainly affect regulatory risk and business planning), so the impact classified as neutral for price direction, with higher policy-driven volatility until enactment and rulemaking finish.