US forces enter Iran by Apr 30 odds jump to 86.5%

US ground troop odds in Iran surged after a U.S. rescue mission inside Iran, even though the aircraft used was damaged. The prediction market “US forces enter Iran by April 30” is now at 86.5% YES (about 86%), up from 62% roughly 24 hours earlier. The jump was linked to Operation Epic Fury, which helped extract a trapped airman. Traders also raised expectations for a longer timeline. The “US forces enter Iran by December 31” contract moved to ~90.5% YES, suggesting the market is pricing in sustained U.S. ground involvement. Price action showed momentum: there was an intraday spike of about +4 percentage points around 2:14 PM as volume accelerated. Liquidity for the April 30 contract is relatively strong (around $4.16M USDC traded daily), making the 86.5% YES move easier to execute than in thinner books. For crypto traders, the key takeaway is that higher “US forces enter Iran by April 30” odds can boost perceived escalation risk and quickly reprice risk sentiment across markets. Follow-up confirmations from the Pentagon/CENTCOM could push the US ground troop odds in Iran higher again. Contract math noted in the article: at ~86¢ per YES share, a correct April 30 resolution would pay $1, implying a ~16% potential return if the scenario plays out.