US-Iran ceasefire prediction market collapses before April 7

Pakistan’s mediation effort to secure a US-Iran ceasefire has failed, and the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market is repricing sharply ahead of the April 7 deadline. The near-term April 7 “ceasefire” contract has fallen to about 1% YES (down from 12% last week), while April 15 drops to around 6% YES (from 24%) and April 30 eases to roughly 17.5% YES. Longer-dated odds are also improving but still reflect caution: May 31 is near 36.5% YES, June 30 about 51.5% YES, and December 31 around 68.5% YES. Trading conditions look fragile. USDC volume is about $440,435 over the past 24 hours, and the April 7 market needs roughly $13,184 in notional to move 5 points—suggesting fast sentiment swings. The largest recorded move is a sharp +2 point spike in the April 30 contract, consistent with thin liquidity and rapid re-pricing. For crypto traders, the key takeaway is that the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market is increasingly bearish for short-term de-escalation: risk-off hedging demand can rise if diplomacy stalls again. Watch for fresh intermediary activity or shifts in official language (e.g., Oman or Qatar) and any new US diplomatic/back-channel signals, which could reprice the US-Iran ceasefire prediction market quickly.