US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds swing after Vance comments

US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds are moving quickly as US-Iran diplomacy narratives shift. After a Strait of Hormuz confrontation hurt short-term optimism, the market earlier priced lower odds for talks by April 30 (13% YES vs 22% previously). In the latest update, US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds rebounded sharply: the “diplomatic meeting by June 30” contract rose to 17.3% (from ~4% a week earlier). One sub-market jumped by ~32 points around 11:40 AM, suggesting fast repricing rather than slow drift. Liquidity appears thin (about $1,220 USDC daily; ~ $4,878 USDC total over 24 hours), and price sensitivity is high: roughly $614 can move the June 30 odds by 5 points. That means smaller orders can swing US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds materially, even without clear evidence of large institutional positioning. Related contracts are mixed. A near-term “permanent peace deal” is far lower (April window around 1% YES, near expiry), while a later peace deal (June) sits higher (~43.5% YES), implying traders expect any resolution to take longer. Traders should watch for confirmation of a neutral-venue meeting (e.g., Oman or Switzerland) and statements from Abbas Araghchi or the White House. Any verified venue or leadership/strategy shift could trigger another sharp move in US-Iran diplomatic meeting odds—potentially spilling over into broader risk sentiment and derivatives positioning.