Odds for US-Iran diplomatic meeting don change after Vance talk

Chances say the diplomatic meeting between US and Iran dey change quick as di story for US–Iran diplomacy don shift. After one gbege for di Strait of Hormuz wey scatter short-term optimism, market bin don price lower chances for talks by April 30 (13% YES vs 22% before). For di latest update, chances for US–Iran diplomatic meeting bounce back sharply: di “diplomatic meeting by June 30” contract climb to 17.3% (from about 4% one week before). One sub-market jump about 32 points around 11:40 AM, wey show say na fast repricing dem do, not slow drift. Liquidity dey thin (about $1,220 USDC daily; ~ $4,878 USDC total over 24 hours), and price sensitivity high: roughly $614 fit move di June odds by 5 points. That mean small orders fit swing di US–Iran meeting odds materially, even if no clear sign say big institutions don enter. Related contracts mixed. One near-term “permanent peace deal” low (April window around 1% YES, near expiry), while later peace deal (June) dey higher (~43.5% YES), im mean traders expect say any resolution go take longer. Traders make dem watch for confirmation say meeting go happen for neutral venue (like Oman or Switzerland) and statements from Abbas Araghchi or di White House. Any verified venue or leadership/strategy shift fit trigger another sharp move for US–Iran diplomatic meeting odds—fit even spill over into wider risk sentiment and derivatives positioning.