US-Iran face-to-face talks in focus as Trump backs diplomacy

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said Iran is open to US-Iran face-to-face talks, while President Trump is receptive to diplomacy. In the prediction market for “US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Locations,” traders cut the probability of no qualifying meeting by June 30 to 6% (from 9% the prior day). With 67 days remaining, the market implies a higher chance of a meeting occurring before the resolution date. Market reaction suggests thin liquidity and sharp price swings: only about $141 is needed to move the contract by 5 points. Traders also noted limited impact from the “diplomatic framing” alone, since no concrete policy or logistical details were announced. The “Karoline Leavitt’s Press Briefing Statements” contract may tick up slightly, but the effect is constrained without official confirmation. What to watch next includes State Department updates and signals from Tehran on meeting logistics. Any official White House confirmation, or use of a neutral intermediary (such as Oman or Switzerland), would likely push the US-Iran face-to-face talks market further. For crypto traders, the immediate takeaway is incremental improvement in expectations for US-Iran de-escalation, but not a hard policy shift—so effects on risk assets are likely to be modest and headline-driven.