US-Iran nuclear deal outlook softens as intel cites limited damage

US intelligence, citing Reuters, reports limited new damage to Iran’s nuclear program after recent military actions. The story points to earlier assessments (June 2025) that disruptions were likely short-term. In the current conflict context, indirect negotiations reportedly continue with Pakistani mediators. Iran is said to propose a phased plan involving a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and steps toward ending hostilities. The US, under President Trump and Secretary Rubio, remains cautious and demands stronger nuclear curbs. Crypto traders tracking event risk may care because the US-Iran nuclear deal is already being priced in prediction markets: the US-Iran nuclear deal contract sits around 14.5% YES (up from 14% over 24 hours). Separately, the “uranium enrichment end” outcome is priced around 8.5% YES, also broadly unchanged. Market interpretation in the article says limited damage is supportive of a NO outcome for the US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31 and for ending uranium enrichment by the same deadline. That implies reduced urgency for a fast diplomatic breakthrough. What to watch next: direct US-Iran talks (via mediators), IAEA statements on Iran’s nuclear activities, public comments from Trump and Iranian officials, and any changes to US sanctions or military posture that could reprice probability quickly.