Bitcoin relief rally in focus as Iran deal timing wobbles
Bitcoin is trying to build a relief rally after Donald Trump said a U.S.–Iran peace deal could be signed on Sunday, with the Strait of Hormuz “OPEN TO ALL.” Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif added that the final text was agreed and an electronic signing could happen within 24 hours.
But Iran’s Foreign Ministry pushed back, saying the memorandum would not be signed “tomorrow” and may be completed in the coming days. That timing mismatch keeps uncertainty elevated even as mediators signal progress.
For crypto traders, a reopened Strait of Hormuz could ease energy-market stress, support risk appetite, and improve the Bitcoin demand outlook. The article cites U.S. Energy Information Administration data that around 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption moves through the passage.
Market checkpoints: Bitcoin traded around $64.2k after a modest uptick, while spot Bitcoin ETFs remained a key sentiment gauge after roughly $315.84M in weekly net outflows (SoSoValue). Separately, Galaxy Research said only 4 of 13 “bottom” signals have triggered, implying a cautious stance despite deal hopes and a long-range BTC floor view of $40,000–$46,000 by late 2026.
Near-term direction likely hinges on whether the U.S., Iran, and Pakistan confirm the same Sunday timeline. Any credibility shift could drive short-term volatility in Bitcoin, with oil moves and spot Bitcoin ETF flow data reinforcing the next leg.
Bullish
The news is constructive for Bitcoin because it points to potential easing around the Strait of Hormuz, which can reduce macro/energy stress and lift risk appetite—factors that typically improve crypto liquidity conditions. Both articles frame the initial Trump-and-Pakistan timeline as a potential catalyst for a “relief” move, with the Strait reopening linked to a meaningful share of global oil flow.
However, the latest update adds a key risk: Iran is not confirming the Sunday signing and instead suggests “coming days,” creating headline-driven volatility risk. Traders may see a short-term spike on deal headlines, followed by pullbacks if timelines slip.
ETF flow data keeps traders selective. With spot Bitcoin ETFs still showing sizable weekly net outflows, any rally may need confirmation from improving inflows. Longer-term caution is supported by Galaxy Research’s limited “bottom” signal triggers.
Net impact on Bitcoin price is still expected to be positive near term (bullish), but execution timing and ETF flows will determine whether the move extends or fades.