US-Iran ceasefire talks hit doubts: Iran diplomats absent, prediction markets reprice

US-Iran ceasefire talks in Pakistan are facing growing doubts after Iranian state media said no Iranian delegation has departed for the meetings. The report undermines de-escalation expectations ahead of the April 21 ceasefire deadline Trump had tied to the timeline. Crypto traders are reflecting the uncertainty in US-Iran prediction markets. The April 30 “Israel–Iran permanent peace deal” YES probability is 6.8% (up from 4% previously), but the market remains low. Liquidity is thin: about $49,406 in face-value volume versus roughly $2,604 in actual USDC traded. Because relatively small orders can move probabilities (about $422 for a ~5-point shift), sentiment can reprice abruptly. Price action shows deterioration in the near-term ceasefire narrative. Ceasefire-related YES odds dropped about 3 points around 7:06 PM Beijing time, falling from 8% to 5%. Separately, earlier coverage also pointed to low near-term deal odds by April 22 and a very low April 21 ceasefire “end” market, reinforcing trader skepticism. The permanent peace-deal outcome still requires major diplomatic progress within roughly 10 days. For trading, monitor official signals from the US/Iran side and mediation updates via Pakistan. Any confirmation of Iranian participation—or softer US rhetoric—could trigger fast repricing across US-Iran ceasefire and permanent peace-deal contracts, likely with high volatility.