US-Iran peace deal odds slide as talks resume in Pakistan

Wall Street Journal reports the White House is optimistic on US-Iran negotiations, but the US-Iran peace deal by April 22 probability has fallen to ~20% (from ~40% a day earlier). Markets reacted to claims that the next US-Iran talks may resume in Pakistan. Prediction markets also repriced by timing: the odds of no qualifying diplomatic meeting before June 30 rose to 7.1% (from 2%). Venue expectations shifted too—“US-Iran peace deal by April 22” is ~19.5% YES, “April 30” is ~37.5% (down from ~61%), while the broader “deal by June 30” remains higher at ~67.5%. Liquidity looks weaker than face-value suggests. For example, the April 22 contract has about $1.9M in nominal notional versus roughly $610K in real USDC traded, raising the risk that larger orders could move prices. Trading takeaway: US-Iran peace deal odds are being pulled lower by the near-term deadline risk, even as later timelines hold up better. Watch for official confirmation of the meeting venue and any US or Iranian official statements—delegations arriving in Islamabad this Sunday are expected to signal whether the talks are truly underway. This headline is likely to drive fast repricing in US-Iran talks prediction markets tied to USDC liquidity.