Trump’s Iran Peace Talks Push Lifts June 30 Odds as April 30 Fades

Trump’s comments on ending the Iran conflict and openness to negotiations by phone are reshaping Iran peace talks prediction markets. In Iran peace talks pricing, the April 30 ceasefire contract is near 2% YES, while the June 30 “permanent peace deal” contract jumps to around 50.5% YES (up roughly 7 points recently). The gap between May 31 (~31.5%) and June 30 (~50.5%)—about 19 points—suggests traders expect a breakthrough in that window. Meanwhile, a contract tied to diplomacy meetings by April 30 is close to dead at ~0.9% YES, indicating skepticism about face-to-face talks before month-end. Liquidity is thin but fast-moving. Over the past 24 hours, USDC traded about $854,504 on the June 30 contract, and only about $10,078 would move the price by five points—meaning sharp repricing is likely on any formal scheduled talks, official statements, or mediator-driven updates (such as Pakistan). For crypto traders, the key is whether Iran peace talks news becomes specific (sanctions relief and troop-related issues). Trump’s remarks alone may not be enough; confirmed diplomatic announcements are the likely volatility triggers.