Chances say make ceasefire between US and Iran drop to 2% after Iran target dem bridges for Gulf
Iran release list of Gulf bridge targets after coalition strike for B1 Bridge for Karaj. For prediction markets, chance say US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 drop comot to about 2% (sharply down from the day before), big reprice wey show traders dey expect less near-term de-escalation.
The downgrade scatter across the curve: US-Iran ceasefire odds for April 15 fall to ~8.5%, April 30 to ~23.5%, and May 31 to ~45.5%. Longer-dated probabilities still higher, but market shape mean diplomacy dey get priced in slower.
Liquidity still active (around $535k in USDC trade across sub-markets). The article also point key catalysts fit quickly reprice US-Iran ceasefire odds, including signals from CENTCOM or the UN and possible intermediary activity through Oman or Qatar.
Key levels make you watch: Apr 7 (~1.8%–2%), Apr 15 (~8.5%), Apr 30 (~23.5%), May 31 (~45.5%), Jun 30 (~57.5%), and Dec 31 (~70.5%).
Bearish
Di latest repricing show say US-Iran ceasefire odds don drop sharply for near-to-mid timelines after the B1 Bridge strike and Iran dem bridge-target list. For crypto, dat usually dey cause risk-off sentiment to rise and e dey increase tail risk (higher chance say things go escalate), wey fit put pressure for broad market bids even if no direct token-specific news dey.
For short term, the steep drop for the probability curve (especially Apr 7 and Apr 15) fit trigger faster liquidations or traders to reduce leverage as dem dey expect volatility. For long term, higher far-dated odds mean diplomacy never fully rule out, but market still need clear catalyst (CENTCOM/UN signals or announcements backed by intermediaries through Oman/Qatar) to reverse expectations—so traders fit remain cautious till new headlines confirm de-escalation.
Active USDC liquidity mean traders fit reposition quick, fit amplify price moves in risk-sensitive crypto during headline-driven swings.