U.S. jobs data and Warsh comments: BTC and gold rally hinge on payrolls
Bitcoin (BTC) and gold are rebounding after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said inflation risks have eased, shifting rate-cut expectations. BTC has pushed back above $61,000, while gold steadied above $4,050 following an earlier dip near $3,942.
Traders now focus on Thursday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect June payroll gains of 110,000 (down from 172,000 in May) with the unemployment rate steady at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 3.5% year-on-year versus 3.4% prior.
A weaker labor market would likely support the “debasement trade” narrative—capital rotating from fiat into hard assets like BTC and gold. Softer wage and demand-pull inflation would also reduce the case for aggressive Fed rate increases, pressuring the U.S. dollar and potentially triggering a sharp snap-back in DXY, which could further lift BTC. However, a hotter-than-expected print—especially on wages—could quickly stall the bounce.
Technically, the article highlights a bullish RSI divergence on BTC’s daily chart, suggesting selling momentum may be fading even as price recently tested multi-month lows.
Neutral
This is an event-driven setup with two-sided risk. Warsh’s softer inflation message already helped BTC and gold recover, but the next catalyst is the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data. If the report shows labor-market weakness (jobs and wages cooler), it would likely support rate-cut expectations, pressure the dollar (DXY snap-back), and strengthen the “hard assets” bid—typically bullish for BTC. If payrolls come in hot, especially wages, the rate-increase case would revive and the dollar could rebound again, quickly undermining the current recovery.
Historically, major U.S. labor prints often trigger fast, high-volatility moves in BTC via the dollar and real-yield channel. Even when the initial reaction is bullish, hot wage data has repeatedly caused snap reversals as traders reprice Fed policy. Because the article frames both outcomes and notes positioning is already skewed, the net implication for market direction is best treated as neutral until the payrolls confirm.