US Officials Consider Letting Israel Strike Iran First to Build Political Case for US Involvement
Senior Trump advisers have reportedly discussed a scenario in which Israel would strike Iran first, prompting an Iranian retaliatory attack that could then justify subsequent U.S. military intervention. According to Politico sources, some U.S. officials believe an initial unilateral Israeli strike followed by Iranian retaliation would make it politically easier to gain public support in the United States for direct U.S. action. Polls show many Americans—especially Republicans—favor regime change in Iran but are reluctant to accept U.S. casualties, so framing and sequencing of strikes matter politically. Insiders noted that while some officials privately prefer Israel to act first to shape public opinion, the most likely outcome remains coordinated U.S.-Israeli operations. The discussion reflects strategic thinking about public perception, timing, and the political feasibility of escalation with Iran.
Bearish
Escalation risk between the US, Israel and Iran increases geopolitical uncertainty, which historically weighs on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. Past Middle East conflicts (for example, major Israel–Iran flare-ups or US-led military actions) have triggered short-term flights to safety, increased volatility, and temporary sell-offs in crypto markets as traders reduce exposure. The notion of sequencing strikes to shape US public support signals a higher likelihood of deliberate escalation rather than de‑escalation, raising tail‑risk concerns. Short-term impact: likely elevated volatility and downward pressure on crypto prices as liquidity sellers and risk-off flows grow. Medium-to-long-term impact: if conflict remains limited, markets can recover; prolonged or wider military engagement would sustain risk‑off sentiment, depress risk assets and increase correlation with safe-haven flows. Traders should tighten risk controls, monitor on‑chain flows for rapid outflows, watch BTC/ETH volatility metrics and option-implied vols, and track news for signs of coordination vs containment to adjust positions.