US investors dey bypass rules, send $11–$34B into offshore prediction markets via Polymarket
One new research report tok say offshore prediction markets—well dem no suppose to serve US users legally—still dey attract plenty US participation. Di total offshore prediction market trading volume dem estimate say America people don trade about $11B to $34B, and di conservative figures dey put $11B to $27B for Polymarket alone. Di report talk say if market share remain steady, by 2030 US users fit dey trade about $133B per year on offshore prediction markets (from wetin dey happen now).
E still explain how people dey bypass rules: US users reportedly dey use VPNs to sidestep geo-restrictions, and blockchain platforms dey rely on lower friction like skipping KYC (identity checks). Dune Analytics data wey di report cite show say 12.5% to 31.5% of US prediction market activity dey happen on offshore platforms, and Polymarket alone fit account for up to 30% of that offshore volume.
For competition, di report show say tins dey shift. CFTC-regulated US operators (including Kalshi) process $74B over 12 months, with Kalshi handling about $70B, versus $85B combined for offshore platforms. Dis mean offshore prediction markets dey grow but dem dey face more pressure from compliant domestic offerings.
For traders, dis one more be signal about sentiment and participation than direct token catalyst, but e fit change how people view prediction-market infrastructure and possible regulator attention.
Neutral
Di headline na dey tok about prediction-market participation, no be specific crypto token or on-chain protocol upgrade. E still matter for traders position becos (1) e show say offshore prediction markets dey capture US demand well through blockchain rails and VPN workarounds, and (2) e signal say regulatory wahala fit show as US regulators and compliant venues dey gain share.
Short-term, the data (offshore prediction markets taking $11–$34B and Polymarket dey dominate part of am) fit boost “risk-on” sentiment around prediction-market infrastructure, but e no too likely to move major crypto prices directly. Traders fit dey watch for headlines wey mean enforcement actions or migration to regulated venues, wey fit affect perceived access, liquidity, and narrative.
Long-term, the report’s competitive shift—CFTC-regulated players (especially Kalshi) dey close the gap—fit reduce the idea say offshore platforms na unstoppable growth story. E resemble past cycles where regulatory clarity and compliant alternatives slowly reduce the addressable base for offshore services, leading to more balanced market structure instead of sustained one-way bullish momentum.