US shutdown odds surge to 85% as Bitcoin stalls near $67K
Polymarket traders now price an 85% chance of a U.S. federal government shutdown before Feb. 14 amid expiring federal funding and stalled congressional negotiations. The heightened political risk coincides with weakening crypto markets: total crypto market capitalization fell to about $2.3 trillion (down 1.8%), and Bitcoin is trading near $67,000. The Fear & Greed Index eased to 9. Analysts on X flagged growing selling pressure and fragile technicals, citing failed resistance breaks in the $95k–$100k range and a breakdown from the $85k–$90k consolidation that accelerated declines toward $60k–$70k support. Some traders warn BTC could fall below $50,000 if selling persists; others argue the coin may range between $60k–$80k, with sharp swings. Market commentary links the shutdown risk and fiscal uncertainty to increased risk aversion, fueling broader crypto sell-offs and elevated volatility. The article notes this is not trading advice and recommends independent research.
Bearish
The combined increase in US government shutdown probability and weakening on-chain/market technicals points to near-term downside risk for crypto markets. Political risk raises risk-off sentiment, which typically pressures risk assets including BTC and altcoins. Technical indicators cited in the article — failed resistance at $95k–$100k, breakdown from the $85k–$90k consolidation, and accelerating move toward $60k–$70k — are consistent with a bearish trend. Trader commentary also flags potential for a decline below $50k if selling persists, reflecting plausible stop-run and liquidity-squeeze scenarios. Historically, episodes of heightened fiscal/political uncertainty (partial shutdowns, debt-ceiling standoffs) have correlated with increased volatility and short-term drawdowns in crypto. In the medium term, outcomes depend on whether the shutdown occurs and on macro responses (liquidity measures, risk sentiment normalization). If a shutdown is avoided or resolved quickly, markets can rebound; if the shutdown deepens and economic data weakens, risk-off flows could prolong declines. For traders: increased volatility favors shorter-term strategies, defensive position sizing, watching key supports ($60k, $50k) and monitoring funding rates and liquidations; avoid overleveraging during this event-driven uncertainty.