Bloomberg Strategist Sees US Treasuries as Next Major Trade Opportunity
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone says US Treasuries may be the next major trading opportunity. McGlone argues that if the prior rally-and-sell patterns in Bitcoin, gold and silver are a guide, markets in 2026 could tilt toward disinflation. He forecasts that gold, silver and copper may peak in 2025 similarly to cryptocurrencies, which could shift investor interest toward US government bonds — especially once equities stabilize. The note positions Treasuries as a potential significant trade for macro traders and fixed-income investors amid expected commodity peaks and lower inflation pressure.
Neutral
The analyst’s call highlights a potential rotation into US Treasuries driven by anticipated commodity peaks and disinflationary pressure. For crypto traders, this is neutral overall. It signals possible reduced risk appetite if capital shifts to bonds, which could exert downward pressure on risk assets including cryptocurrencies. However, the thesis is conditional (depends on 2025 commodity peaks and subsequent equity stabilization) and not an immediate market-moving proclamation. Historically, commodity peaks and slowing inflation have led to stronger core bond demand and periods of constrained equity/crypto rallies (e.g., post-2011 commodity cycles and 2018–2019 bond rallies). Short-term, traders should watch yields, inflation data, and commodity prices for confirmation; a move into Treasuries could tighten liquidity for high-beta assets and increase volatility. Long-term, sustained disinflation and stronger Treasury demand can lower discount rates, benefiting long-duration assets but potentially reducing speculative flows into crypto. Traders may hedge exposure, monitor cash flows into bond funds, and adjust positioning if yields decline materially.