USD/CHF Forecast: Bulls vs 100-Day SMA—Target 0.7950

The USD/CHF forecast hinges on a technical test: bulls are challenging the 100-day Simple Moving Average (100-day SMA), near 0.7920. A clean break above this barrier would put the USD/CHF pair on course to target 0.7950, a key psychological level. Traders are watching supporting evidence behind the USD/CHF forecast. The pair built a base around 0.7850 in early 2025, then printed higher lows through March. Volume has also increased on up moves, suggesting participation beyond speculation. Key levels cited: resistance at the 100-day SMA (~0.7920), first target 0.7950, secondary target 0.8020, and a support zone at 0.7850–0.7870. Fundamentals are mixed but supportive for the USD/CHF forecast. The Swiss franc remains a safe-haven, yet SNB policy normalization appears to keep Swiss inflation within target, reducing near-term pressure for aggressive tightening. The bigger driver is the Fed: market pricing points to roughly 50 bps of potential rate cuts later in 2025, though timing is uncertain—creating divergence versus the SNB. Positioning and derivatives data add nuance. COT-style positioning suggests leveraged funds are net short CHF (not at extremes), which can fuel short-covering rallies if resistance breaks. Options implied volatility is relatively subdued, while risk reversals show a slight skew to calls above 0.7950—hinting at upside expectations. If the 100-day SMA holds, USD/CHF could range between 0.7850 and 0.7920. A drop below 0.7850 would shift the outlook bearish, with potential retest toward 0.7750. Overall, the USD/CHF forecast remains bullish while price action confirms strength above the 100-day SMA.