USD/CHF Surges as Fed’s Hawkish Shift Boosts Dollar

USD/CHF surged after market expectations shifted toward a less-dovish Federal Reserve outlook. The pair broke resistance at 0.9250 and traded near 0.9287 (+0.85% in the London session), the highest since November 2024. Technical indicators are bullish: the 50-day moving average crossed above the 200-day, RSI ≈ 68, Bollinger Bands widening, and daily volume ~25% above the 30-day average. Key technical levels: support 0.9200, resistance 0.9320, upside target 0.9400 if 0.9320 is cleared. Fundamentals driving the move include higher-than-expected US core services inflation (4.2% y/y), resilient labor market (unemployment 3.8%, wage growth 4.5%), a recovering manufacturing PMI (ISM 51.3), and stronger Treasury yields (2-year Treasury ~4.35% vs Swiss equivalents ~1.20%). The DXY rose ~1.2% to 104.85. Wider US–Swiss interest-rate differentials (≈315 bps on two-year yields) and elevated demand for USD call/CHF put options indicate institutional positioning for further dollar gains; leveraged funds added ~32,000 net long USD contracts while asset managers reduced CHF exposure by ~$4.2bn. The Swiss National Bank remains more neutral with inflation at 1.4% and normalized rates after exiting negative territory; the franc’s safe-haven role is being challenged by dollar yield attractiveness. Traders should monitor Fed communications, US inflation and payrolls, SNB statements, and interest-rate differentials. Risk: RSI nearing overbought territory and possible consolidation between 0.9200–0.9320 before continuation or a corrective pullback. (SEO keywords: USD/CHF, US Dollar, Federal Reserve, Swiss Franc, interest-rate differential, Forex trading)