USD/JPY stalls near 159.00 as Fed–BoJ divergence meets intervention

USD/JPY is stalling around the key 159.00 resistance as the market weighs US–Japan policy divergence against growing Japanese “decisive action” warnings. A sustained break above 159.00 could extend gains toward 160.00. Technically, USD/JPY remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, keeping the broader uptrend intact. But RSI is in overbought territory, pointing to consolidation or a near-term pullback. Volume has picked up near 159.00, turning the level into a clear battleground. Fundamentally, the Fed’s higher-for-longer stance keeps the US–Japan rate differential wide, pressuring the yen. Meanwhile, the BoJ is still cautious with normalization. Separately, ceasefire hopes are reducing JPY safe-haven demand and supporting risk appetite, which indirectly lifts USD/JPY. Japan’s Finance Ministry has ample FX resources, but analysts warn unilateral intervention may have limited impact unless the interest-rate gap shifts. Key catalysts include US Non-Farm Payrolls and Japan’s Tankan business sentiment survey—both could quickly move USD/JPY around 159.00 and swing broader risk flows.