Bernstein Sees USDC Digital Dollar Reflation, Sets $140 Target for Circle
Bernstein upgraded its bullish stance on Circle (USDC issuer), saying USDC is entering a new growth cycle after “digital dollar reflation.” The firm pointed to USDC supply rising by about $2B in seven days, reversing roughly six months of stagnant or declining growth. Bernstein reiterated an Outperform rating and a $140 price target for Circle’s stock, implying around 60% upside from current levels. It also noted USDC shares have gained roughly 40% over the past month.
Key drivers cited include renewed momentum in crypto markets, more US regulatory clarity, growth of tokenized capital markets, and wider stablecoin adoption for payments. Bernstein added early signs that AI agents are using stablecoins in payments.
On usage metrics, Bernstein said USDC has narrowed the gap with Tether (USDT) in transaction activity. USDC’s share of adjusted stablecoin transaction volume rose from about 40% in 2025 to over 60% so far in 2026, overtaking USDT on that measure. Circle’s IPO in June 2025 saw shares priced at $31 and raising about $1.1B; in the latest quarter, Circle reported $701M revenue and $48M net income.
Bullish
Bernstein’s note is market-relevant because it combines (1) a clear catalyst for USDC demand—about $2B supply growth in seven days—and (2) a usage-based signal where USDC’s adjusted stablecoin transaction share jumped to 60%+ in 2026, overtaking USDT. When stablecoin supply and payments usage accelerate together, traders often treat it as early confirmation of broader on-chain liquidity expansion.
In the short term, the $140 Circle target and the narrative of “USDC growth cycle” can attract flows into USDC-related trades and related equities (Circle), supporting risk appetite across the stablecoin complex. In the long term, if regulators provide clearer guidance and tokenized capital markets keep expanding, USDC’s payments adoption (including the mention of AI agents using stablecoins) could become a structural tailwind.
Historically, similar stablecoin inflection calls—where supply growth coincided with rising transaction share—tended to precede periods of improved liquidity and tighter spreads in dollar-priced on-chain assets. However, because stablecoin growth is also cyclical and sensitive to regulation and market risk sentiment, this bullish view is most likely to play out through gradual confirmation rather than a one-day breakout.