Mizuho: USDC’s Adjusted YTD Trading Volume Tops Tether’s USDT; Circle Price Target Raised
Mizuho Research reports that Circle’s USDC has overtaken Tether’s USDT in adjusted year-to-date (YTD) trading volume for the first time since 2019. Adjusted YTD volume — which excludes internal and automated transfers to better capture real transaction flows — is about $2.2 trillion for USDC versus roughly $1.3 trillion for USDT, giving USDC an estimated 64% share of combined adjusted flows. Following the volume data, Mizuho raised Circle’s price target from $100 to $120. Despite USDC’s trading-volume lead, Tether still has a larger market capitalization (approx. $184 billion) compared with USDC (approx. $79 billion). Analysts say trading volume matters because the stablecoin that dominates daily transaction flows can become the de facto medium on exchanges and trading platforms. The report arrives amid ongoing U.S. regulatory debate over stablecoin rules — including revenue, governance and tokenized securities issues — and lingering legislative uncertainty (the CLARITY Act has passed the House but is stalled in the Senate). Whether USDC’s lead is structural or temporary will become clearer over coming quarters as adjusted transaction data evolves.
Neutral
The news is neutral for price action of the mentioned stablecoins. USDC’s lead in adjusted transaction volume signals stronger real-world usage and could support greater demand for USDC on exchanges and payment rails, which is mildly bullish for USDC’s utility and Circle’s market positioning. Mizuho’s raised price target reflects improved fundamentals for Circle, but stablecoins are designed to maintain a peg rather than appreciate, so direct upward price pressure on USDC is limited. Tether retains a much larger market cap, which preserves its market presence. Regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. injects ambiguity: stricter rules or divergent jurisdictional outcomes could shift flows between issuers or constrain product features, creating short-term volatility in market share but not necessarily price moves for a pegged asset. In the short term, traders may reallocate stablecoin holdings or route trades via USDC more often, slightly boosting USDC volumes and liquidity. In the long term, if USDC’s volume lead proves structural it could increase USDC’s on-chain utility and market share, benefiting trading infrastructure and fee accrual for Circle’s ecosystem — still without typical appreciation seen in non-pegged tokens. Overall, impact on USD-pegged price is limited; implications are more about market structure, liquidity and settlement behavior than direct price appreciation.