Mizuho: Adjusted YTD trading volume for USDC don pass Tether’s USDT; Circle price target don raise
Mizuho Research report sey Circle USDC don pass Tether USDT for adjusted year-to-date (YTD) trading volume for di first time since 2019. Adjusted YTD volume — wey no include internal and automated transfers make e capture real transaction flows — na about $2.2 trillion for USDC versus roughly $1.3 trillion for USDT, so USDC get estimated 64% share of combined adjusted flows. After di volume data, Mizuho raise Circle price target from $100 to $120. Even though USDC dey lead for trading volume, Tether still get bigger market capitalization (approx. $184 billion) compared with USDC (approx. $79 billion). Analysts talk sey trading volume matter because the stablecoin wey dominate daily transaction flows fit become de facto medium on exchanges and trading platforms. The report show for time wey US regulatory debate about stablecoin rules still dey — including revenue, governance and tokenized securities issues — and legislation still uncertain (CLARITY Act don pass House but e dey stalled for Senate). Whether USDC lead na structural or temporary go clear pass as adjusted transaction data unfold in the coming quarters.
Neutral
Di news dey neutral for price action of the stablecoins wey dem mention. USDC lead for adjusted transaction volume dey show say e get stronger real-world use and fit boost demand for USDC for exchanges and payment rails, wey small-kain gentle bullish for USDC utility and Circle market position. Mizuho raise their price target because Circle fundamentals don improve, but stablecoins na make dem to keep peg no to rise, so direct upward pressure for USDC price limited. Tether still get much bigger market cap, so e still hold market presence. Regulatory wahala for U.S. bring confusion: tighter rules or different jurisdiction outcomes fit move flows between issuers or limit product features, fit cause short-term volatility for market share but no necessarily move price for pegged asset. Short-term traders fit reallocate stablecoin holdings or route trades through USDC more, small boost USDC volumes and liquidity. Long-term if USDC volume lead prove structural e fit increase USDC on-chain utility and market share, benefit trading infrastructure and fee accrual for Circle ecosystem — still without the usual appreciation wey non-pegged tokens get. Overall, impact on USD-pegged price limited; na market structure, liquidity and settlement behavior dem dey affect more than direct price appreciation.