VanEck Targets $500K Bitcoin by 2029 on US Treasury BTC Accumulation Plan
Asset manager VanEck projects Bitcoin could reach $500,000 by 2029, framing the call around potential US government accumulation under the proposed BITCOIN Act of 2024.
VanEck’s “layered” forecast approach points to a longer-term base case of about $2.9 million per Bitcoin by 2050 (from January 2026 capital market assumptions). That scenario assumes Bitcoin captures 5–10% of global trade usage and could represent around 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.
Key catalyst: US Treasury purchases
- The BITCOIN Act of 2024 would direct the US Treasury to buy up to 1 million BTC by 2029 (around 4.8% of the 21 million supply cap).
- For context, US spot Bitcoin ETPs already held more than 1.26 million BTC as of February 2026 (about 6% of total supply).
VanEck’s research lead Matthew Sigel has also previously sounded more aggressive on shorter horizons, reiterating a $1 million Bitcoin target “within the next several years,” implying $500,000 by 2029 could be a relatively conservative waypoint in its internal models.
Institutional flows vs corporate treasury retreat
While spot Bitcoin ETPs continue absorbing supply, commentary cited July 2026 suggests at least 20 public companies have retreated from Bitcoin treasury strategies due to financial pressure. VanEck notes this dynamic is “convenient” for ETPs, potentially supporting continued fee-driven growth.
If the BITCOIN Act stalls politically, VanEck argues one of the thesis’ structural supports could weaken. Otherwise, it envisions a self-reinforcing demand cycle from sovereign purchases.
Bullish
This news is fundamentally bullish for Bitcoin because it strengthens the narrative of sustained, policy-backed supply demand—specifically the idea that a US sovereign buyer could accumulate up to 1 million BTC by 2029 under the BITCOIN Act of 2024. In past market behavior, headlines that increase expected “structural demand” (for example, the approval and ongoing inflows of spot Bitcoin ETPs) have tended to support price through both spot demand and sentiment.
Short-term impact: The $500,000-by-2029 price target is not an immediate trading catalyst, but it can trigger momentum trades as traders front-run the possibility of a regulatory/political path for Treasury accumulation. It may also increase attention on Bitcoin ETP flow data and any congressional updates tied to the BITCOIN Act.
Long-term impact: If the bill advances, the market could reprice Bitcoin’s demand profile from “institutional adoption only” to “institutional + sovereign reserve,” reinforcing upside expectations. That said, the article itself notes a key risk: if the act stalls, the thesis weakens. Traders should therefore monitor legislative progress and ETF inflow/outflow trends, because a policy disappointment could reverse sentiment quickly.
Net: The tone, statistics (Treasury buy size vs total supply; ETP holdings), and the emphasized demand cycle support a bullish bias, though with clear political execution risk.