VanEck: Bitcoin could hit $2.9M by 2050 if it captures 2.5% of central bank reserves
VanEck analysts project Bitcoin (BTC) could average 15% annual returns over the next 25 years, pushing its price to about $2.9 million by 2050 in the firm’s base case. The forecast assumes BTC captures 5–10% of global trade settlement and is adopted as a non‑sovereign reserve asset representing roughly 2.5% of central bank reserves — making Bitcoin ~1.66% of global financial assets under VanEck’s model. Analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush frame BTC as a long‑term hedge against fiat debasement and monetary‑regime risk rather than a tactical trading instrument. The report sets out scenario ranges: a bear case (~$130k) driven by a 2% CAGR, a base case (~$2.9M) using a 15% CAGR, and a hyper‑bull case (~$52.4M) at 20% CAGR. VanEck notes existing BTC use in trade among sanctioned states (e.g., Venezuela, Iran, Russia) but limited adoption in advanced economies today. The model ties price potential to structural demand from trade settlement and central‑bank reserve allocation; therefore strategic institutional adoption would materially increase long‑term demand even while short‑term volatility remains likely. Relevant SEO keywords: Bitcoin, BTC price forecast, central bank reserves, trade settlement, monetary hedge.
Bullish
The VanEck report is bullish for BTC over the long term because it ties substantial upside to structural, institutional demand rather than speculative flows. If Bitcoin wins 5–10% of trade settlement and central banks allocate ~2.5% of reserves to BTC, the model implies a multi‑million dollar price by 2050 — a direct price-support mechanism from durable, large-scale demand. For traders this implies: (1) long-term directional bullishness that justifies strategic allocation or long-dated exposure; (2) increased sensitivity to institutional and regulatory signals — announcements of central‑bank pilot projects, reserve allocations, or major trade-settlement adoption could trigger sharp rallies; (3) persistent short-term volatility remains likely, so tactical trading, risk management, and position sizing remain essential. Near-term price action may be driven more by macro news, liquidity, and sentiment, but the report raises the probability of a structurally higher BTC price path over decades, which is positive for long-duration holders and could shift risk premia in derivatives and funding markets.