VanEck: Risk-On Q1 Outlook; Bitcoin Signals Cautioned After 2025 Cycle Break
VanEck’s Q1 2026 outlook sees a clearer macro backdrop—improving U.S. fiscal metrics and more anchored long-term rates—that should lift investor risk appetite and support risk assets including tech, AI stocks and crypto. The firm expects lower tail risks as the U.S. deficit-to-GDP has fallen from pandemic peaks, helping stabilize rates and foster a more favorable environment for equities and risky assets. However, VanEck warns Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle “broke in 2025,” creating divergence from stocks and gold and complicating short-term technical signals; the firm adopts a cautious 3–6 month stance on BTC. Market commentators cited (Arctic Digital, HashKey Group, Will Clemente, Michaël van de Poppe) generally view H1 2026 as constructive for risk assets—pointing to lower leverage, oversold BTC indicators, and potential fiscal stimulus around U.S. midterms—but emphasize uncertainty in Bitcoin’s correlation with equities and the need to watch key technical levels near $92k–$100k for breakout confirmation. Key takeaways for traders: a broadly bullish macro backdrop that favors risk-on positioning, heightened short-term uncertainty for BTC after the 2025 cycle break, and specific BTC levels to monitor for momentum confirmation.
Bullish
The combined reporting frames a generally bullish macro environment that should support risk assets, including crypto, by reducing tail risks via improving U.S. fiscal metrics and more anchored long-term rates. That macro support increases the likelihood of positive price pressure for Bitcoin over the medium term. However, VanEck’s explicit caution about Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle break introduces short-term uncertainty: traders may see volatility and weaker correlation with equities, making immediate directional bets riskier. Technical levels (~$92k–$100k) are highlighted as critical—holding above these levels would signal momentum continuation and strengthen the bullish case. Therefore, the net impact is classified as bullish for BTC price prospects overall, but with a cautionary short-term outlook that argues for selective, technically disciplined entries and risk management.