VanEck’s Sigel Flags First BTC/ETH Split Since 2021
VanEck analyst Matthew Sigel has identified the first BTC/ETH divergence since 2021, noting Bitcoin’s price has fallen over 10% while Ethereum remains flat. This unusual split, observed only 52 times since 2020, signals bearish momentum. Historical data show a median 15.6% BTC drop over 30 days versus an 8.4% ETH decline; in the first week, BTC typically dips 2.8% while ETH gains 6.4%. The BTC/ETH divergence pattern has preceded short-term declines in both assets. Sigel warns that this market configuration may foreshadow further downside, despite Ethereum providing temporary support. Traders should monitor these metrics, as past divergence events have often triggered market sell-offs.
Bearish
Sigel’s identification of a BTC/ETH divergence is traditionally a bearish signal. Historical data show that in similar divergence events, Bitcoin experiences a median 15.6% drop over 30 days and Ethereum an 8.4% decline, despite occasional short-term ETH strength. The current 10% BTC decline against a flat ETH suggests weakening market sentiment. In the short term, traders may increase sell orders to hedge against further downside, leading to increased volatility. Over the longer term, prolonged divergences can trigger broader market corrections as investor confidence wanes. Given that this is only the 52nd occurrence since 2020, the rarity and historical outcomes support a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.