Vanguard’s SOL ETF backing boosts Solana outlook — is $500 reachable?
Vanguard reversed its long-standing stance and opened its platform to crypto ETFs on 2 December 2025, adding support for a spot Solana (SOL) ETF. The move comes amid growing institutional inflows into Solana: six spot SOL ETFs launched in Q4 2025 have attracted about $622 million, with roughly 95% concentrated in Bitwise’s BSOL. Solana’s price has lagged — about 28% down year-to-date — but on-chain and performance metrics show improving fundamentals. ChainSpect data cited a 4.78% rise in real-time transactions per second (1H) to 798.5 tx/s and transaction finality near 12.8 seconds, underscoring Solana’s scalability edge. Vanguard’s decision, coupled with the upcoming Alpenglow network upgrade in Q1 2026 and steady institutional rotation into altcoins, is framed by the article as supporting the possibility of a strong multi-quarter recovery. The writer suggests a $500 target (around a 270% rise from press-time prices) is not impossible if adoption and upgrades proceed, while also noting ongoing volatility and recent weak price performance.
Bullish
Vanguard’s decision to support a spot SOL ETF is a meaningful institutional endorsement that can increase capital access and retail visibility for Solana. Historically, institutional listings and ETF approvals (e.g., BTC and later ETH spot ETF rollouts) led to pronounced inflows and multi-week to multi-month rallies as new liquidity and passive investment channels opened. The article cites $622M in inflows across six SOL ETFs and ChainSpect metrics showing improved TPS and finality—fundamental signs that support longer-term value. The upcoming Alpenglow upgrade is a positive catalyst that could further improve throughput and developer confidence. Short-term, price may remain volatile because SOL is down ~28% YTD and concentrated inflows (95% into BSOL) suggest exposure is currently uneven; traders might see sharp moves on ETF flows, news, or upgrade updates. Medium-to-long-term, broader institutional adoption and improved network fundamentals point to a bullish bias, making higher targets plausible if adoption and liquidity trends continue. Risk factors include overall crypto market sentiment, macro conditions, execution risks around upgrades, and concentration of ETF assets.