ING: Vietnam Emerges as Biggest ASEAN Winner from US Tariffs as Manufacturing Shifts Accelerate
ING Bank analysis finds Vietnam is the largest ASEAN beneficiary of recent US tariff policies, as multinational manufacturers shift production away from China. Key drivers include competitive labor costs, extensive free-trade agreements, rapid infrastructure investment, and political stability. Electronics lead Vietnam’s export growth (42% of exports), followed by textiles (15%) and machinery (12%). Vietnam attracted $36.6 billion in FDI in 2024 (≈15% YoY growth) and plans roughly $120 billion in infrastructure investment through 2030. Export growth projections (2023–2025) show Vietnam rising from 8.2% to an estimated 10.3% in 2025, outpacing Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines. Major firms — notably Samsung and Apple suppliers — are expanding Vietnamese production, accelerating diversification into electronics, textiles, furniture and auto components. ING highlights Vietnam’s geographic and regulatory advantages that preserve trade links with both the US (≈30% of exports) and China (for intermediate goods). Short-term implications include increased FDI inflows, export-led GDP growth and pressure on regional competitors; long-term effects may reshape ASEAN leadership dynamics and supply-chain geography. Risks include infrastructure strain, rising labor costs, regulatory hurdles and potential future tariff or policy changes.
Neutral
This trade-policy and supply-chain shift story has an indirect and mixed impact on crypto markets, so the overall effect is neutral. Positives: increased FDI, stronger Vietnamese economic growth and manufacturing diversification can raise regional investor confidence and could boost demand for on-chain payment rails, stablecoins, NFTs tied to manufacturing/commerce, or local crypto adoption as remittance and cross-border payments grow. Negatives: the story does not directly affect macro liquidity, monetary policy or crypto-native fundamentals (hashrate, protocol upgrades, tokenomics). It may divert investor attention and capital into equities, industrials and FX positions tied to ASEAN currencies rather than speculative crypto allocations. Historical parallels: past geopolitical or trade shifts (e.g., US-China tariff episodes) produced localized FX and equity moves but only transient effects on crypto prices unless accompanied by broader macro shocks (rate changes, liquidity events). Short-term: expect limited market reaction—possible modest flows into Asia-focused digital-asset products or stablecoins for trade settlements. Long-term: if Vietnam’s growth accelerates payments innovation and regulatory clarity, it could support broader institutional crypto adoption in the region, a gradual bullish structural tailwind. However, risks (policy changes, infrastructure limits) and the indirect linkage keep the immediate crypto-market impact neutral.