Up to 60% of Polymarket Volume Na Wash Trading
One 80-page SSRN paper by Columbia University researchers don find say wash trading fit be up to 60% of Polymarket’s trading volume from July 2024 to April 2025. The study talk say wash trades dey represent 25% of di platform total three-year volume and e notice say e go bounce back to about 20% by October 2025. Researchers blame Polymarket operational setup for make dem fit do manipulative self-trade and collusion wey no change net position. As one top decentralized prediction market wey dey prepare for US relaunch after CFTC give no-action letter, Polymarket fit face regulatory wahala, market integrity dem go spoil and traders confidence fit drop. Traders need to dey watch out for wash trading risk, liquidity change and platform trust because transparency na concern for blockchain-based prediction markets.
Bearish
Di study wey dem do show say the volume mata we Polymarket report no too dey correct and e mean say transparency matter for decentralized prediction market no clear well. For short term, if people know say plenty wash trading dey, e fit make trading activity and how people take dey use di platform reduce because traders go begin dey doubt the data and fit move dia money go another place. Regulatory people fit begin watch well well, make institution people begin dey cautious. For long term, if integrity wahala continue, e fit make people lose trust for Polymarket market and other prediction platform dem, wey go slow growth and new things wey fit dey come. All these things tok say trading volume and token demand for Polymarket fit no go well.