Weak US jobs data cuts Fed hike odds to 44% as Bitcoin barely moves
Weak US jobs data showed US non-farm payrolls fell about 23,000 in July, against an 83,000 forecast. Revisions also deepened the slowdown: May payrolls were cut by 66,000 and June by 37,000. As a result, traders reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve hike, with CME FedWatch placing the probability at 44% (and October at 58.3%).
In the hour after the release, Bitcoin (BTC) rose only about 0.7%, reaching a local high near $65,300, after trading around $64,500 beforehand. Stocks moved higher and Treasury yields declined, signaling a mild relief reaction.
The report also included softer wage growth (annual wage growth 3.2% vs 3.5% forecast) and easing labor-market tightness (unemployment rate 4.1%, participation down to 61.4%). This combination supports the near-term “fewer hikes” narrative, but BTC’s restrained response suggests markets may already be partially positioned for a less hawkish outlook.
Overall, weak US jobs data likely supports a supportive rate-expectations backdrop, but the modest BTC move implies limited momentum and a market still sensitive to future labor/inflation prints.
Bullish
Weak US jobs data reduced near-term Fed tightening odds (44% for September), which is typically supportive for risk assets and often reduces the discount-rate pressure on BTC. The initial market reaction matched this: stocks rose and Treasury yields fell, while BTC climbed toward $65,300.
However, BTC “barely moved” and only gained ~0.7%, suggesting traders may already price in a softer policy path, or that they are waiting for confirmation from subsequent inflation prints and future labor-market releases. Similar episodes occur when labor data cools but market positioning is already adjusted—BTC can rally slightly on headline relief yet fail to trend strongly until the next macro catalyst.
Short-term, expect elevated sensitivity to Fed-related probability shifts (FedWatch) and yields; a continued cooldown in jobs/wages would likely help BTC hold higher levels. Long-term, if revisions imply a sustained slowdown without reigniting inflation, the market can gradually reprice toward fewer hikes—supportive for BTC’s medium-term risk appetite. But if upcoming data reverses (e.g., wages or inflation re-accelerate), the bullish impulse could fade quickly.