Whales Accumulate as Bitcoin Revisits 2024 Entry Zone
Bitcoin has slid back to price levels last seen in October 2024 — the zone where large holders began a significant accumulation phase — and on-chain data shows continued whale buying amid the recent downturn. Analyst CW8900 reports steady accumulation of BTC and ETH by large addresses; Ethereum whales presently hold positions with losses similar to prior cycle lows, interpreted by some as buy-the-dip behaviour ahead of a rally. Current market prices: BTC trading around $68,000–$71,000 (~$69,000), down ~2% this week and ~28% month-to-date; ETH near $2,000, down ~13% in two weeks and ~40% in a month. Conflicting signals exist: Fundstrat’s Tom Lee expects ETH to fully rebound citing past V-shaped recoveries, while Trend Research’s recent liquidation of $2.1B in leveraged ETH longs (an $869M realized loss per Arkham) highlights downside risk. Technical analyst Wise Crypto warned the recent 9% BTC rebound may be a trap, pointing to bearish divergence and elevated NUPL; support levels to watch: $65k–$66k and major floor at $60k. Sentiment polls and Santiment data show crowd fear, which historically can precede moves contrary to expectations. Key takeaways for traders: whale accumulation suggests institutional buying appetite and potential medium-term bullish pressure; high short-term volatility and recent large leveraged exits increase downside risk — monitor on-chain accumulation metrics, NUPL, and support at $65k–$60k for trade signals.
Neutral
The article presents mixed signals that justify a neutral categorization. Bullish factors: on-chain data and analyst reports indicate sustained accumulation by large BTC and ETH holders (whales), which historically supports medium-term upside as institutional demand can underpin price floors. Tom Lee’s commentary on ETH’s historical V-shaped recoveries reinforces a longer-term bullish narrative. Bearish factors: significant recent drawdowns (BTC ~28% monthly, ETH ~40% monthly), large leveraged liquidations (Trend Research’s $2.1B exit with an $869M realized loss), and technical warnings (hidden bearish divergence, NUPL surge) increase short-term downside risk and volatility. Market sentiment polls show many traders expect deeper lows, which can either become a self-fulfilling driver or contrarian signal if whales keep buying. Implications for traders: short-term traders should treat the market as high-risk — watch support zones at $65k–$66k and $60k, follow on-chain accumulation, NUPL, and leverage metrics for entries or stop adjustments. Swing and position traders may view whale accumulation as a constructive sign for medium-term positions but should size risk given recent liquidations and elevated volatility. Overall, opposing on-chain accumulation and technical/sentiment warnings produce offsetting forces, making immediate directional conviction uncertain.