Whales Rebuild Reserves—236K BTC Accumulated in 90 Days, Exchange Outflows Rise
Large Bitcoin holders (wallets holding 1,000–10,000 BTC) have rebuilt reserves, adding roughly 236,000 BTC since December 2025 and restoring balances to pre‑October 2025 levels (~3.09 million BTC). CryptoQuant and Glassnode data show average large order sizes (950–1,100 BTC) have been consistently active through 2026, and whale-related exchange flows into Binance reached $8.24 billion over the past 30 days — a 14‑month high. Meanwhile, gross exchange withdrawals by whales averaged about 3.5% of exchange‑held BTC supply on a 30‑day rolling basis, the strongest pace since November 2024, implying roughly 60,000–100,000 BTC moved off exchanges in the past month. The retail-to‑whale deposit ratio has fallen to ~1.45 as whale deposits increase. Net exchange balances remain relatively stable because inflows and outflows have both risen. Key takeaways for traders: significant accumulation by whales may support price floors and reduce sell-side liquidity on exchanges; elevated large‑ticket order activity increases the potential for volatility around block trades; and continued strong withdrawals could tighten available on‑exchange supply, a bullish structural signal if demand persists. This is not investment advice.
Bullish
The net picture is bullish because large holders have materially increased reserves (≈236K BTC in ~90 days) and significant gross withdrawals from exchanges indicate ongoing off‑exchange accumulation. Key bullish mechanics: 1) rising whale balances restore pre‑crash holdings and reduce on‑exchange sell pressure; 2) sustained large average order sizes (950–1,100 BTC) point to committed, large‑ticket buyers rather than fleeting retail interest; 3) high gross inflows paired with even stronger withdrawals suggest much of incoming supply is being pulled off exchanges into cold storage or private custody, tightening available liquidity. Historical parallels: similar whale accumulation phases and rising withdrawals preceded multi‑week rallies in 2020–2021 and in 2024 when on‑exchange supply contracted. Short‑term implications: expect elevated volatility around large block trades and possible price support near accumulation zones; watch order books and OTC desks for sudden liquidity gaps. Long‑term implications: if accumulation continues while demand persists, reduced exchange supply can be structurally bullish and set the stage for sustained upside. Caveats: large inflows to exchanges (e.g., Binance) mean selling pressure could re‑emerge if whales rotate to distribution; macro events and liquidations can still trigger downside. Traders should monitor exchange net flows, whale wallets, and block‑trade activity for confirmation.