Whales Accumulate as Bitcoin Nears 75% Supply-in-Profit — Bull Case Intact
Bitcoin (BTC) has consolidated between $88,000 and $91,000, prompting debate over whether a broader bearish phase has begun. Key on-chain metrics point to mixed signals: the share of Bitcoin supply in profit (a core indicator of investor profitability) briefly entered the historically constructive 75% zone but has fallen to about 71.5%. CryptoQuant data show that restoring supply-in-profit to 75%–80% would likely support stability and resume upward momentum. Large holders (whales) have increased accumulation, with whale balances near 3.2 million BTC and monthly whale holdings rising to the highest level since early January. Inflow to accumulation addresses corroborates this buying activity. Meanwhile, the Long-Term Holder Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) sits near 0, indicating long-term holders remain largely dormant and are not selling. Retail investors have been net sellers, but the combined behavior of whales and long-term holders means only ~3.5% more of circulating supply needs to return to profit to reach the 75% threshold. For traders, these signals suggest downside risk if supply-in-profit continues to fall (potential pressure toward lower $80,000s), but sustained whale accumulation and dormant long-term holders keep the broader bull case viable. Primary trading considerations: monitor the supply-in-profit metric (75% threshold), whale balance trends, accumulation address inflows, and short-term retail selling pressure.
Bullish
The article highlights offsetting forces: a modest decline in the share of Bitcoin supply in profit (from ~75% to ~71.5%) increases near-term downside risk, but strong whale accumulation and dormant long-term holders materially reduce immediate sell pressure. Historically, supply-in-profit above ~75% has correlated with constructive price structure and lower volatility; only ~3.5% more supply needs to return to profit to reach that threshold. Whale balances rising to ~3.2M BTC and increased inflows to accumulation addresses are bullish signs—they indicate buyers with deep pockets are positioning at current levels. Long-Term Holder CDD near zero shows holders are not capitulating, which supports longer-term supply scarcity. Retail selling creates short-term pressure and could push price toward the lower $80k range if the supply-in-profit metric keeps falling. However, if whales continue to accumulate and the supply-in-profit metric recovers to 75%–80%, the market is likely to stabilize and resume an upward trend. Similar past episodes (post-halving rallies and consolidation phases) show that significant accumulation by large holders during retail weakness often precedes renewed rallies. For traders: short-term cautious risk management is warranted (watch for a break below accumulation zones), but position sizing can favor a bullish bias while monitoring on-chain metrics and whale activity for confirmation.