Whales Drive Bitcoin Distribution as $105K Becomes Key Support
Bitcoin saw a sharp bounce after dovish Jackson Hole comments lifted risk appetite, but gains quickly faded. Over the weekend, BTC slid from around $117,300 to $110,600, forming a bearish weekly engulfing candlestick. Onchain data reveals that all wallet cohorts are distributing coins, led by mid-size holders with 10–100 BTC. Large whales (>1,000 BTC) also remain net sellers.
Analyst Boris Vest highlights that smaller investors (0–1 BTC) are accumulating, and 1–10 BTC wallets buy dips below $107,000. The 100–1,000 BTC cohort now holds $105,000 as its last stronghold before further selling. Realized-price metrics show short-term holders (1–3 months) have cost bases near $111,900, while longer-term holders sit closer to $90,000.
Technically, a break below the $105,000 support could trigger accelerated downside, with the next demand zone between $92,000 and $89,000. This risk is magnified by historical seasonality, as Bitcoin often weakens during August to September’s “ghost month,” which has averaged a 21.7% decline since 2017.
Crypto trader Roman Trading adds that BTC/EUR has not hit new highs, indicating recent gains stem from a softer US dollar rather than fresh demand. He also warns that post-spot Bitcoin ETF enthusiasm may be waning, reflecting exhaustion similar to past distribution phases.
Traders should watch the $105,000 level closely. A sustained defense could stabilize the market, while a breach may prompt capitulation and deeper corrections.
Bearish
Onchain distribution across all wallet sizes, led by mid-size (10–100 BTC) and large whales (>1,000 BTC), underpins downside risk. The bearish weekly engulfing candle confirms momentum loss after the Jackson Hole rebound. Historical seasonality, notably the August–September “ghost month,” aligns with further pullbacks, while realized-price gaps highlight potential capitulation zones between $92,000 and $89,000. ETF-related buying enthusiasm appears to be fading, similar to past distribution phases. In the short term, a break below $105,000 could trigger accelerated selling. Over the longer term, seasonal weakness and weak cost support suggest the market may struggle to reclaim highs without fresh demand catalysts.