William Blair Keeps Outperform on Circle as USDC Rises
William Blair has reiterated its “Outperform” rating on Circle (CRCL) after stronger-than-expected Q3 results and spotlights USDC as a leading stablecoin poised to replace fiat in cross-border B2B payments. The bank noted a 101-fold rise in 12-month payment volume to an annualized $3.4 billion and lifted 2025 transaction revenue guidance to $90 million–$100 million. It forecasts USDC’s market cap nearing $150 billion by 2027, driving Circle’s adjusted EBITDA above $1 billion. Circle’s infrastructure—Circle Payments Network (CPN) and the Arc layer-1 blockchain—should diversify revenue and fuel growth. Key risks include slower stablecoin adoption and potential US regulation under the GENIUS Act. William Blair also highlights Coinbase (COIN) as a strategic USDC partner set to benefit from this expansion.
Bullish
In the short term, William Blair’s advice to buy on weakness after a 3.9% pre-market dip may trigger immediate buying pressure on CRCL shares. The strong Q3 metrics, including a 101-fold surge in payment volume and raised revenue guidance, support positive trader sentiment. Over the long term, the bank’s forecast of USDC’s market cap near $150 billion, Circle’s path to over $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA, and growing infrastructure (CPN and Arc) point to sustained growth. Regulatory risks under the GENIUS Act add some caution, but the overall outlook remains bullish for Circle and USDC.