Wintermute: Oil volatility may push Bitcoin to $76K or $60K

Wintermute says Bitcoin’s next move hinges on oil and risk sentiment. A five-day pause on U.S. strikes targeting Iranian energy helped shrink the geopolitical risk premium in oil, lifting BTC from the high-$60K area toward about $71K and squeezing shorts. However, Wintermute cautions the rally is fragile because it has been driven more by derivatives (short covering and gamma flows) than broad spot demand. Oil and macro pressure remain the key risks. Oil disruptions have spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz: Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields and drone strikes hit Kuwaiti refinery infrastructure. Brent surged above $112 (highest close since mid-2022). Meanwhile, the Fed kept rates at 3.50%–3.75% with “higher-for-longer” messaging. The dot plot stayed hawkish, with limited cuts expected through 2026. Wintermute frames a near-term window into the March 27 options expiry. If oil stabilizes and diplomacy holds, BTC could revisit the $74K–$76K resistance zone. If shipping restrictions persist or talks sour, risk assets may turn defensive and BTC could retest mid-$60K support. Crypto positioning is mixed: the FOMC drove heavy ETF outflows, with Bitcoin seeing reported $708M outflows in one day, while Ether ETFs reportedly logged record weekly inflows (~$160.8M). Wintermute suggests ETH’s relative bid may relate to its perceived income profile when rates stay restrictive.