Wintermute provides prediction market liquidity on Kalshi and Polymarket
Wintermute confirmed it is providing two-sided liquidity on major prediction markets, including Polymarket and Kalshi. According to Decrypt, the market-making activity creates a “mechanical link” that can move capital flows between the two venues and help traders buy or sell positions with less price disruption.
Wintermute, which says it processes over $3.5 trillion in annual trading volume, said it “quot[es] two-sided markets” across event contracts. Its Head of OTC Trading Jake Ostrovskis described the liquidity profile for prediction markets as “early-stage,” arguing that sustained two-sided liquidity tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and improves the probability signals embedded in market prices.
The announcement matters for crypto traders because prediction-market liquidity can reduce friction when expressing views on outcomes, particularly as the platforms expand beyond “forecasting tools” into venues for trading event risk.
The report also notes a separate regulatory tailwind: the U.S. CFTC approved Kalshi to offer Bitcoin-linked perpetual futures in the U.S., reinforcing growing derivatives integration around these venues. Wintermute’s U.S. focus has been discussed previously by CEO Evgeny Gaevoy.
Bullish
Wintermute adding two-sided liquidity is typically constructive for market quality. By tightening spreads and enabling larger trade sizes on Kalshi and Polymarket, the move should reduce friction for traders trying to express probability views—often improving depth and potentially attracting more participation.
In the short term, better liquidity can increase trading activity and reduce volatility caused by thin order books on event contracts. Over the medium-to-long term, improved reliability of probability signals can make these venues more competitive against traditional prediction/derivatives products.
The bullish tilt is reinforced by the separate CFTC green light for Kalshi’s Bitcoin-linked perpetual futures. Historically, regulatory clearance combined with improved market plumbing (liquidity provisioning) tends to draw incremental capital and widen participation, which can lift overall sentiment around the associated venues.
Risks remain: as stated, liquidity is still “early-stage,” so improvements could be uneven across contracts and may not immediately translate into sustained volume growth across all events.