Wolfe Research: Bitcoin faces bear-bull battle — bottom seen at $75K, next test $101K

Published: 2025-12-04 18:03:18 |

Wolfe Research analysts say Bitcoin is in a "bear-bull battle" as market participants split between believing the bear market has begun and that the bottom has arrived. BTC surged above $90,000 after a rapid two-day recovery, but Wolfe maintains its view that Bitcoin’s bottom will be near $75,000. The firm warns of continued weakness in crypto ETF inflows and broader digital-asset declines, which could trigger a bearish wave. Short-term momentum has improved, but the next major technical test is at $101,000 (the 50-day moving average); the psychological level of $100,000 is also highlighted. Analysts frame the current split market as a potential buying opportunity but reiterate caution. (Not investment advice.)

Neutral

Wolfe Research’s note contains both bullish and bearish elements, supporting a neutral market classification. Bullish: BTC’s rapid recovery above $90,000 and improving short-term momentum can attract buyers and spark short-term rallies. Bears: Wolfe keeps a $75,000 bottom forecast and warns that weak crypto ETF inflows and broader asset declines could trigger renewed selling. Key technical level at $101,000 (50-day MA) and the psychological $100,000 mark are immediate hurdles; failure to hold momentum below the 50-day MA historically invites deeper corrections. Traders should treat the situation as a tactical opportunity with elevated risk — use tight risk management. Short-term impact: increased volatility and choppy price action as participants position around $75K support and $100–101K resistance. Long-term impact: fundamentals (ETF adoption, macro liquidity) will determine trend; if ETF flows recover and BTC convincingly breaks above the 50-day MA and $100K, the outlook turns bullish. If ETF flows remain weak and BTC revisits $75K, market sentiment could shift back to bearish. Past parallels: episodes where ETF flow weakness coincided with failed retests of the 50-day MA have led to multi-week pullbacks; conversely, decisive breaks above major moving averages have preceded renewed uptrends. Recommended trader actions: monitor ETF flows and on-chain demand, set stops below defined support (near Wolfe’s $75K), and watch for confirmation above $101K before increasing long exposure.