World Cup Prediction Markets Seen Boosting Coinbase Revenue: Bernstein
Bernstein says the 2026 FIFA World Cup could become a major catalyst for prediction markets, with Coinbase and Robinhood positioned to gain from a surge in new users. The firm estimates the expanded tournament will drive more than $3 billion in incremental sports betting handle and add roughly $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer prediction market volume during the month-long event.
Bernstein expects sports to lift the typically slow period for online betting. With 104 matches, the tournament is forecast to reach about 6 billion viewers worldwide, up from 5 billion in 2022.
For Coinbase, Bernstein notes it surpassed $100 million in annualized prediction market revenue as of March, soon after launching the product nationwide via a partnership with Kalshi. Users across all 50 US states can trade event contracts tied to sports, politics, culture and other real-world outcomes.
Robinhood is also expected to benefit. Bernstein highlights Robinhood’s Rothera, a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse for prediction markets, and forecasts about $586 million in prediction market revenue for 2026.
Broader context: prediction markets continue to grow even as the wider crypto market cools. A Bitget Wallet/Polymarket report cited nearly $26 billion in monthly prediction market trading volume, with retail traders making up over 80% of users. The report also said sports are increasingly the largest recurring category, with sports betting representing more than 39% of prediction market volumes in March.
Separately, the CFTC issued draft rules indicating sports event contracts are generally not contrary to the public interest, despite being classified as “gaming” under federal law. Overall, the news frames prediction markets—especially around the World Cup—as a likely driver of incremental revenue for major US crypto-linked platforms.
Bullish
Bernstein’s projections imply a clear demand catalyst for prediction markets around the 2026 FIFA World Cup. For traders, that matters because higher platform activity can translate into sustained revenue narratives for Coinbase and Robinhood, potentially improving sentiment toward crypto-linked market infrastructure.
In the short term, World Cup-related hype can drive speculative interest in “prediction market” operators and their ecosystems, which may modestly lift broader risk appetite in crypto (especially around event-driven themes). In the medium term, if the CFTC’s draft direction reduces regulatory uncertainty for sports event contracts, it can support adoption—similar to how regulatory clarity around exchanges and compliance frameworks historically improved market confidence.
However, this news is more about user growth and revenue visibility than direct tokenomics. Therefore, the expected impact on major coin prices is likely indirect and sentiment-driven rather than a guaranteed fundamental repricing. Net effect: bullish for prediction-market infrastructure themes, but probably neutral-to-limited for BTC/ETH volatility unless broader market conditions align.