WTO says AI investment could lift global trade beyond 2026 forecasts
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said accelerated trade in AI hardware, software and data‑centre infrastructure may push global merchandise trade above the World Trade Organization’s October projection of 0.5% growth for 2026. She told Bloomberg that AI-related investment accounted for roughly 42% of the increase in goods trade expected for 2025. The WTO plans to review its forecasts if AI goods trade continues at current pace. Okonjo-Iweala highlighted recent US–China trade agreements and EU–China talks as stabilising factors. A World Economic Forum/Bain paper presented at Davos finds the US and China account for about 65% of global AI investment across the value chain and advises strategic interdependence—partnering with allies and targeting niche strengths—rather than full self-sufficiency. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned AI will reshape labour markets: IMF research estimates 60% of jobs in advanced economies and 40% globally will be affected (enhanced, transformed or eliminated), with entry-level roles particularly vulnerable. Key takeaways for traders: accelerating AI infrastructure trade could raise global trade growth expectations, favour sectors tied to semiconductors, cloud and data‑centre equipment, and prompt policy responses (tariffs, trade talks) that influence supply chains and tech equities.
Bullish
The news is classified as bullish because accelerating trade in AI equipment and infrastructure implies higher capital spending across semiconductors, cloud services and data‑centre hardware—sectors closely tied to tech equities and on‑chain infrastructure providers. Okonjo-Iweala’s remark that AI investment accounted for 42% of the expected trade increase and the WTO’s openness to revising forecasts signal a potential upward revision to growth expectations, which can lift risk assets and sector-specific demand (chips, cloud, enterprise software). The US–China concentration (65% of AI investment) suggests large global flows and supply‑chain impact; favourable trade agreements or cooperative deals reduce tail‑risk from tariffs, supporting market confidence. Short term: markets may see sector rotation into semiconductor suppliers, cloud providers, and industrial hardware names; crypto assets tied to Web3 infrastructure or projects focused on AI tooling could benefit sentiment if capital allocation moves toward data and compute. Volatility can arise around policy shifts (tariffs, export controls) or labour concerns that trigger regulatory responses. Long term: sustained AI investment should increase demand for specialised hardware and services, structurally supporting revenues in technology and cloud sectors and potentially raising enterprise adoption of blockchain/AI integrations. Historical parallels: past technology-driven trade booms (e.g., smartphone and cloud cycles) lifted supplier equities and related infrastructure demand; similar dynamics are likely if AI capex scales. Overall, the net effect is supportive for risk assets, with targeted upside for tech and infrastructure exposures, but traders should monitor policy, supply‑chain bottlenecks and labour/regulatory risks that could introduce episodic downside.