XAG/USD Plummets Near $79.30 as Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz

Silver price forecast turns sharply bearish as XAG/USD falls to near $79.30/oz, down about 3.2% in the latest move. The trigger is confirmed reporting that Iran has again closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial maritime traffic. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard cited “naval exercises and regional security” for the closure. Markets are pricing a major geopolitical chokepoint risk: roughly 21 million barrels of oil per day could be affected (about one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade). While precious metals often benefit from safe-haven demand, XAG/USD is pressured by a stronger US dollar and bond inflows. Data referenced in the article shows spot silver around $79.42 (from near $82.10 at the open). The sell-off is linked to a “dollar strength” regime, supported by falling 10-year US Treasury yields (down 25 bps) and a higher DXY (up about 1.8%). This reinforces the typically negative correlation between the dollar index and dollar-denominated commodities like XAG/USD. Technical levels highlighted: XAG/USD broke below the $80.00 psychological support and is at its lowest level in six weeks, also slipping under the 100-day moving average. Next support is seen around $78.00–$78.50, with RSI below 30 suggesting oversold conditions but rallies potentially capped near ~$80.50. Traders should watch whether the closure is prolonged. A longer disruption could lift inflation expectations, but in the short term the article’s base case is continued bearish pressure on XAG/USD if the dollar and growth fears dominate.